Xiaopeng’s benchmark Model Y is priced at 200,000-300,000, and MPV is coming soon

On November 30, Xiaopeng Motors announced its Q3 financial report for this year, and at the evening earnings conference call, He Xiaopeng said in his opening remarks:

Frankly speaking, Xiaopeng has been going through a period of challenging things recently on the way to achieve long-term strategic goals. To this end, we have recently conducted an in-depth strategic review and adjustment of the organizational structure. The competition of smart electric vehicles, we believe, will be a marathon competition.

Similarly, the data shown in this financial report is also experiencing challenges as He Xiaopeng said. Next, let's take a look at the content of the financial report, and then interpret He Xiaopeng's disclosure of how to face the challenges in the financial report conference call.

Xiaopeng Motors is experiencing the biggest challenge after 2019

Before the release of the Q3 financial report, the media "Later AUTO" had an exclusive interview with He Xiaopeng on November 16, and the content mentioned:

Since He Xiaopeng joined Xiaopeng Motors, he has experienced two desperate moments. One time was in 2019, when Xiaopeng Motors could not raise money, and the remaining funds were only enough to maintain the company for six months. He met Li Bin, the founder of NIO, in Hong Kong, and even considered merging the two companies. The second time is now. Sales fell short of expectations, and the market value dropped by 80% compared to the beginning of the year. In September, the launch of G9, a product that hit the mid-to-high-end market, went wrong, which directly pushed Xiaopeng to the forefront.

It can be seen that Xiaopeng Motors is experiencing the biggest challenge after 2019, but this time it is not that it cannot raise money.

  • The delivery volume fell month-on-month, sprinting to deliver 100,000 vehicles for the whole year

In terms of delivery volume, the total delivery volume in Q3 of 2022 is 29,570 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 15% , but lower than the 34,422 vehicles in Q2 this year. The latest figures showed 5,811 deliveries in November.

Regarding the delivery guidance for Q4, Xpeng Motors expects to deliver 20,000-21,000 vehicles. Based on delivery guidelines, Xpeng's full-year deliveries in 2022 are expected to be between 118,553 and 119,553 vehicles, compared to 98,155 in 2021.

Calculated based on the delivery volume in November, Xiaopeng Motors needs to deliver at least 9,088 new cars in December to meet the delivery guidance target.

  • Operating loss expanded quarter-on-quarter, gross profit margin and auto profit margin both increased quarter-on-quarter

The total revenue of Q3 in 2022 will be 6.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.3% , but the total revenue of Q2 this year will be 7.4363 billion yuan.

This year's Q3 auto sales revenue was RMB 6.24 billion, an increase of 14.3% over the same period in 2021. Gross profit margin was 13.5%, automobile profit margin was 11.6%, net loss was RMB 2.38 billion, and operating loss was RMB 2.18 billion.

In Q2 last quarter, the auto sales revenue was RMB 6.9385 billion, the gross profit margin was 10.9%, the auto profit margin was 9.1%, the net loss was RMB 2.7009 billion, and the operating loss was RMB 2.0908 billion.

It can be summarized that Xiaopeng’s total revenue in Q3 this year increased year-on-year and decreased quarter-on-quarter. Automobile sales revenue increased year-on-year and decreased month-on-month. The net loss decreased month-on-month, and the operating loss increased month-on-month, but the gross profit margin and automobile profit margin both increased month-on-month.

For this year's Q4, the company expects total revenue to be in the range of RMB 4.8-5.1 billion.

  • Focusing on intelligence, R&D expenditure expanded year-on-year and month-on-month

This year's Q3 R&D expenditure was RMB 1.50 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 18.5%.

Xiaopeng officially explained that the year-on-year increase was mainly due to the increase in employee salaries due to the increase in R&D personnel, while the quarter-on-quarter increase was mainly due to the increase in new model development expenditures that support future revenue growth.

How to run this marathon in the face of doubts?

  • He Xiaopeng focuses on the automotive business, Xia Heng resigns as executive director to focus on products

Some time ago, Xiaopeng G9 experienced twists and turns in the conference configuration changes, and the delivery volume of other models was not satisfactory. Whether it is the media or car owners, they are worried that the two eco-enterprises, Pengxing and Huitian, will distract He Xiaopeng from his personal management of Xiaopeng Motors.

In the face of doubts from the outside world, He Xiaopeng revealed in the earnings conference call:

Eco-enterprises Xiaopeng Huitian and Xiaopeng Pengxing have completed independent financing and have the ability to operate independently. Therefore, my personal participation in ecological enterprises will be greatly reduced in the future.

On the other hand, Xia Heng, the co-founder and president of Xpeng Motors, resigned from the position of executive director of the board of directors to focus more on products. According to the recent Tianyancha App, Guangzhou Pengbo Automobile Technology Co., Ltd. was established, the legal representative is Xia Heng, the registered capital is 5 billion yuan, and the business scope includes engineering and technology research and experimental development, auto parts and accessories manufacturing, battery manufacturing, etc.

  • Amid doubts, the delivery volume in December may return to the level of 10,000 units

According to official data, the total delivery volume in October was 5,101, and the figures for P7, P5, and G3i were 2,104, 1,665, and 709, respectively. Calculated in this way, the G9, which was delivered on October 27, delivered 623 vehicles in that month.

On the other hand, the total delivery volume in November was 5,811 units, a month-on-month increase of 14%. Among them, Xpeng G9 delivered 1,546 units, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 148%.

He Xiaopeng said at the Q3 financial report conference call that due to the impact of the epidemic and production capacity ramp-up in the fourth quarter, the overall delivery volume is expected to be between 20,000 and 21,000 vehicles. rebound.

He also revealed that in the short term, G9 needs to overcome the challenges of the epidemic and ramping up production capacity, and the reputation of G9 users is gradually expanding. He is confident that G9 will become the top three in the pure electric SUV market of more than 300,000 , and with the accumulation of word of mouth, the gap with the first place will be narrowed next year.

According to the October sales released by the Automobile Dealers Association, NIO ES7 has the highest sales volume of more than 300,000 pure electric SUVs in China, with 2,814 units. The others are BMW iX3 and NIO ES6, with 2,592 and 1,970 units respectively. The price of Tesla Model Y before the price cut was 316,900 (after subsidies), and the sales volume in October was 14,391.

The attributives in "the top three in the pure electric SUV market of more than 300,000 yuan" have been added enough, and there is still a greater chance for Xiaopeng G9.

On the other hand, on November 30, Xiaopeng Motors officially announced the launch of a time-limited price guarantee policy : orders that complete deposit payments before December 31, 2022 will continue to enjoy the national new energy subsidies in 2022, regardless of delivery time. The subsidy difference due to the time of licensing will be borne by Xiaopeng.

  • XNGP will expand to more vehicle types

On the past Xiaopeng 1024 Technology Day, Xiaopeng Motors announced the next-generation all-scenario intelligent assisted driving product XNGP, and plans to launch the main functions in Q3 of 2023, and can support at least dozens of cities.

To He Xiaopeng's surprise, among the current G9 orders, a very high percentage of users have chosen the Max version that supports XNGP even though XNGP has not yet been OTAed. He said that next year, driven by product reputation and cost, XNGP will expand to more vehicle types.

Regarding the XNGP expansion of new models, combined with the information from multiple sources on the Internet, I think it is the Xpeng P7 facelift (highly equipped with lidar), the coupe SUV code-named F30, and the MPV code-named H93. It can be guessed here that the F30 and H93 are also equipped with lidar, and XNGP can match the latest ADAS hardware platform of Xiaopeng's existing technology evolution.

As for the technology path, according to the evolution logic announced by Xpeng G9 Max, it is expected that the urban NGP of the lidar version Xpeng P7 and F30 will also adopt the technological development route of "emphasizing perception and ignoring maps". After landing in cities such as Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Shanghai, it will gradually open up the ability to identify traffic lights and go straight through intersections, change lanes, overtake, and turn left and right in areas of the country without high-precision maps. In the future, it will also realize full-scene access from parking spaces to parking spaces.

  • Three new cars in 2023 to improve cash flow

He Xiaopeng revealed that based on the investment in the past few years, Xiaopeng has laid out three powerful car platforms, including the completed E platform, and the third-generation F platform and H platform that are planned to be completed next year . The upgrade iteration has laid a solid technical foundation.

This is the rare news that Xiaopeng Motors officially revealed the F platform and H platform. Combined with the announcement made by the printed circuit board company Bomin Electronics on becoming a supplier of Xiaopeng F30 in March this year, the first model of the above-mentioned new platform is the F30. According to spy photos from multiple external sources, it is positioned as a coupe SUV with a slip-back design and an integrated die-casting process.

As for the H platform, according to multiple external sources, there is an MPV model code-named H93, but there is relatively little information about the car at present. Since then, the facelifted P7, F30, and H93 will become the three new models announced by Xiaopeng in 2023.

According to the news on the financial report conference, by the middle of 2023, Xiaopeng will also have a B-class medium-sized SUV priced in the range of 200,000 to 300,000. Xiaopeng expects that the sales of this car will significantly exceed Xiaopeng’s existing models. . I believe this is the Xiaopeng F30, positioned against the Model Y.

For a long time, the SKU of Xiaopeng Motors has confused many people who are interested in buying, and sometimes it is difficult to explain the sales clearly, and Xiaopeng seems to be aware of these problems internally.

It is understood that on the third-generation F platform and H platform, car models will share a large proportion of power systems, intelligent driving systems, chassis and electrical and electronic architectures , as well as corresponding supply chains and manufacturing capabilities. Power and so on.

Efficient sharing of resources between models is similar to Li Auto's recent L-series product planning. Although the product line has expanded, SKUs can still be strictly controlled. This kind of product logic is indeed what Xiaopeng Motors needs.

He Xiaopeng believes that thanks to the layout of the production capacity in the early stage, the company's capital expenditure demand will drop significantly in the next few years compared with this year, and the cash flow situation is expected to be further improved.

According to the data, at present, Xiaopeng Motors has sufficient cash reserves, with 40.12 billion in the account. Even based on the net loss announced in Q3, Xiaopeng still has enough cash to survive for more than 4 years. The situation is better than the last difficult time in 2019. few. It is difficult for us to predict whether Xiaopeng Motors can reverse the current situation in a short period of time, but in the next few years, it still has enough room to bite the bullet and create its own opportunities.

On the other hand, the performance of Xpeng Motors' US stock market has also improved, and it rose 47.28% on November 30, becoming the Chinese concept stock with the highest increase on that day.

In the face of external challenges, He Xiaopeng once said in a media interview on September 22 this year:

"When you enter a curve, you need to slow down and turn to the next acceleration lane. I think the first generation of new forces today are actually on the curve, and one company may be a little ahead of the curve. Peng is also turning a corner", "In such a logical system from how the first-generation technology platform to the second-generation technology platform, I think that our current logic is to take a stable turn and make the entire second-generation technology platform ".

The development of Xiaopeng Motors has slowed down recently, but it is also accelerating the promotion of 3 new cars. This marathon is still going on. The test is whether it can catch up after decelerating and stably cornering.

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