“Laotou Le” is banned, but the people who drive it are still there

"Laotou Le" seems to be the epitome of this absurd world. It is more absurd than this world and makes this world even more absurd. From the first kilometer it drove, the absurdity began to cycle like the hub of a wheel.

It is the rebellious rock music of the North China Plain, the braised chicken companion of Dezhou, Shandong, the Thelma and Louise of the Hutongs of Beijing, and the rhythm of life in rural areas across the country. Cayenne or Defender are its disguise, "Electric A 888888" is its lie, but traffic regulations are not its constraints. Toyota believes that there must be a road before the car reaches the mountain, but "Laotou Le" is the road itself.

We sacrifice rules, order, blood, and even life, and it responds with contempt and intensification. It is as stubborn as the blackened Wukong and as cruel as the god of death wielding a sickle.

We curse, scold, draw circles, and stab people, but the sighs of old age are the waltz of death, and the dim eyes are the dark curtain of the executioner covering the sky. I accelerated to overtake the white brand Audi A6L, I refused to give in to the other car's Range Rover, and I kept pace with the large cargo on the highway, but I couldn't avoid the oncoming "Laotou Le".

The old man enjoys the world, just like the cactus that holds you when you are staggering in the Twisted Jungle and you are about to fall. The world kisses you painfully and wants you to repay it. It can't stand any traffic and people, and it doesn't accept all the red armbands and big-brimmed hats. It can travel in the three realms and the five elements can be at ease.

However, no matter how stubborn the monkey is, there will be a day when his fingers are clenched into a fist and smashed down.

"Old Man Music" is banned, history is happening again

December 31, 2023 is the last day of the transition period for illegal electric three- and four-wheeled vehicles in Beijing. Starting from New Year's Day this year, low-speed electric three- and four-wheeled vehicles commonly known as "Laotoule" are prohibited from being on the road, and are not allowed on roads, squares, Park in public places such as parking lots.

At the same time, vehicles used in the four key industries of postal delivery, sanitation, landscaping, and shared bicycle operation and maintenance have also been replaced, and all license plates have been completed.

In fact, as early as July 2021, five departments including the Beijing Municipal Public Security Bureau and the Beijing Municipal Transportation Commission jointly issued the "Notice on Strengthening the Management of Illegal Electric Three- and Four-Wheeled Vehicles", which clearly stated that illegal electric three-wheeled vehicles purchased before the notice was issued will be punished. , four-wheel vehicles set a transition period.

During this long transition period, relevant departments have also carried out a lot of work, such as communication with car owners, door-to-door recycling, and the earlier the recycling, the more compensation, etc. After the ban on "Old Tou Le", according to many media interviews, as well as Beijing Feedback from citizens to the Dongqi Automobile Association revealed that the "old manle", which was originally a chronic disease in the city, has become hard to find. It has lost more than 95% of its physical appearance, and one or two cars can be seen sporadically.

In fact, banning "Laotou Le" from the road does not mean that there are no cases for reference.

▲ Passenger tricycles are called "numb" in Wuhan area

Wuhan, which is located on the thoroughfare of nine provinces, was also troubled by passenger tricycles 20 years ago. This type of passenger tricycle was called "Numa" in Wuhan, "Mazda" in Nanjing, and some northern cities would call it "Mazda". "Three bungs".

Twenty years ago, among people with a monthly income of less than 900 yuan in Wuhan, the main modes of travel were public transportation, bicycles and "Mumbo". Most of the people who drove "Mumbo" were laid-off workers in the city, migrant workers and other people at the bottom of society. Because Numb is cheap to buy, it only costs 3,000 to 5,000 yuan, which is much lower than the 150,000 yuan for operating taxis. At the same time, the fare within 3 kilometers only costs 2 to 5 yuan, making it suitable for low-income people.

But "numbness" has caused bigger problems. First of all, there is a serious problem of occupying roads and grabbing passengers. Because the vehicles are small, do not comply with traffic regulations, and can drive on various road conditions, their speeds are much higher than the actual speed of buses of more than ten kilometers per hour. It is much cheaper than taxis, attracting a large number of customers who originally belonged to buses and taxis. At the same time, random driving and parking further restricts the use of taxis.

Then came the serious traffic accidents. From 1998 to 2003, there were more than 3,300 traffic accidents in Wuhan due to "numb" violations, resulting in a total of 275 injuries and 207 deaths.

For comparison, statistics show that between 2013 and 2018, there were as many as 830,000 traffic accidents caused by "Laotou Le" in China, resulting in 18,000 deaths and 186,000 injuries. In 2022, a total of 131 traffic accidents involving illegal electric tricycles and four-wheelers occurred in Beijing, resulting in 138 deaths.

So the problems caused by "Old Man Music" now have actually been previewed before.

The ban on "numbing" in Wuhan also provided valuable lessons and experience.

1997 was the first time Wuhan cracked down on the "Mum" chaos. At that time, the Wuhan traffic control department found that it had intervened in the "Mum" operation by chasing and intercepting it, but with little effect. There were even more and more illegal operating wheels, so they took forced confiscation. approach to one-size-fits-all management. This kind of rough management has caused fierce resistance: most of the owners of Numb are laid-off employees, or even people with disabilities and other disadvantaged groups. Confiscating Numb is equivalent to cutting off their source of income. Behind tens of thousands of car owners, there are hundreds of thousands of jobs. . Once it is over-managed, there will be a huge chain reaction.

In the end, the confiscation campaign came to nothing, and the authorities allowed 18,000 "Numbus" vehicles to obtain operating certificates and legally go on the road. However, this only treated the symptoms rather than the root cause, and black cars are still the mainstream of this market.

In 2000, Wuhan again vigorously cracked down on unlicensed "Mums". In less than a month, 13,000 "Mums" were impounded, and nearly half of them were destroyed. However, in the end, the rectification was not carried out and the problem was not resolved. Cure.

2003 was the third "marijuana ban" in Wuhan. This time, multiple departments adopted a "redemption" strategy and prepared a "redemption fee" of 200 million yuan. At the same time, they also made sufficient preparations in publicity, persuasion and emergency plans. Only 99.8% of the licensed passenger tricycles were handed over in 10 days, completing the task that was originally scheduled to be completed in 3 months.

The situation in Beijing's rectification of "Laotoule" this time is actually very similar. On the one hand, many disadvantaged groups rely on it for life and travel. On the other hand, many of these groups have weak awareness of rules, causing a large number of vicious traffic accidents.

Then in terms of rectification methods, we have also seen a lot of reuse and optimization of Wuhan’s “cannabis ban” experience, such as a longer transition period, softer and more convenient recycling policies, more humane propaganda and persuasion, etc.

During the "marijuana ban" in Wuhan in 2003, many "marijuana" car owners decided to take to the streets to drive passengers for free on the last day before handing over their vehicles, expressing their support and cooperation for the policy and saying goodbye to their old careers.

"Old man's fun" is gone, but the problem is not over yet

When Wuhan banned cannabis in 2003, two things were done to calm the subsequent chain reaction: First, 30,000 jobs were prepared to help car owners find jobs and avoid large-scale unemployment. The second is to lower the starting price of taxis, making it easier for citizens to travel short distances by taxi, and alleviating the travel problems after "Numb" was banned.

At the same time, because Numb no longer competes with taxis, the empty taxi rate in Wuhan dropped from 40% to 25% in 2003, which in turn solved the concern about revenue loss caused by the lower starting price.

One difference between the current ban on "Laotoule" in Beijing and other places is that these "Laotoule" are almost all for home use, rather than operating vehicles. Most of the users are elderly, which will not cause a large number of people to be laid off, and related industries such as taxis will be affected. Case.

In the "Laotoule" accidents in Beijing since 2023, 71% of the driver's own fatality rate, and more than 70% of the drivers were over 60 years old. 85% of them drive without a license and have never received formal driving training.

Therefore, the main impact of the ban on "Laotoule" is the problem of travel for the elderly and the survival of the manufacturers of "Laotoule". In many places, such as Dezhou, Shandong, micro low-speed electric three- and four-wheelers are the local pillar industry one.

Immediately after "Laotou Le" was banned from the road, Beijing Public Transport Group launched a pilot operation of 6 special medical lines on January 2 to facilitate residents of large communities to travel together for medical treatment. It is expected that this spring, Beijing public transportation buses will cover 8 districts. These are In order to alleviate the needs of the elderly for employment and transportation of children to school after the ban of "Laotou Le".

But it is obvious that "Laotou Le" solves point-to-point transportation problems at any time, especially the last mile problem. However, public transportation cannot solve these problems well. At the same time, the operation of bus companies in most cities is also very difficult. If it becomes a problem, you can't protect yourself, let alone take care of others?

▲ "numb" waiting for passengers at the subway station

After the Wuhan subway was gradually opened, many connections between subways and buses appeared to have gaps. The problem of the "middle kilometer" came to the fore, and the "numbness" that had been extinct for many years even resurfaced.

At the same time, the original manufacturers of "Laotou Le" are also going through a battle royale, with transformations and closures.

Compared with the sudden disappearance of "Laotoule" on the road, the disappearance of "Laotoule" from the production line and market is a long process: According to data from the Lithium Battery Research Institute (GGII) of the Advanced Industrial Research Institute (GGII), affected by the rectification policy, in 2018 The production scale of four-wheel low-speed electric vehicles began to shrink in 2018, to about 1.233 million units. The sales of low-speed vehicles declined for the first time, and then the output dropped sharply year by year. By 2021, the industry output was only 320,000 units. During this period, more than 20 registered Enterprises with capital of 10 million yuan and above are deregistered and exited.

▲ Reading Electric’s transformation project ended in disgrace.

Those who try to transform generally do not end well. In the field of "Laotou Le", Reading Electric was once the leader. From 2016 to 2018, Reading's electric vehicle sales were 150,000, 210,000 and 287,000 respectively. Sales exceeded 12 billion yuan, and it has been the sales champion of low-speed electric vehicles for three consecutive years. After the release of the rectification policy, Reading Electric tried to obtain new energy vehicle production qualifications through acquisitions, transformed the mini-car market, and launched the Mango series of mini-electric vehicles priced at 30,000 to 50,000 yuan.

But in the end, this transformation was extremely unsuccessful. Reading's electric vehicle sales have been hovering around 2,000 units per month in 2022 (there may be a lot of false data). Last year, the annual sales volume was 1 unit, and it has already filed for bankruptcy.

At the same time, when the market for "Laotou Le" was vacated, mini electric vehicles such as Wuling Hongguang mini EV, Chery QQ Ice Cream, Geely Panda Mini and other mini electric vehicles tried to seize the market and fill the vacancy.

But new problems have also arisen. One of the advantages of "Laotou Le" is that it is cheap, and another advantage is that it can be driven without a driver's license (although it is also illegal). The above-mentioned electric vehicles that are regularly produced and sold on the road require a driver's license, which is something that many elderly people do not want to take.

After Wuhan successfully banned cannabis in 2003, many cities in Hubei began to follow suit. Nowadays, similar passenger tricycles have long disappeared in major urban areas. But whether it's "numbness" or "old man's joy", they are all part of thousands of traffic problems.

In 2021 and 2022, Hubei Province has ranked first in the country in the number of traffic accidents, traffic accident rate, and number of injuries in car accidents for two consecutive years. However, Hubei's permanent population and number of motor vehicles are not at the top, and are not as high as those in Guangdong. Half and thirds.

"Numb" is gone, and "Old Tou Le" is banned, but the people who use "Numb" and "Old Tou Le" are still there, and the people who are used to traffic violations and violations are still there.

References:

"Analysis on the Effectiveness of Government Decision-making from the Perspective of Public Policy – Taking Wuhan City's "Numb" Market Rectification as an Example" Meng Yingying, Wuhan University

"Banned on the road in many places, "Old Man Le" enters countdown to exit" Popular News, Xiu Congtao

"Beijing will be banned from the roads starting from January 1st!" "Old man is happy", can't you feel happy? 》Agricultural Television Network, Wang Huiping

"The first batch of young people who started playing "Old Man Music" can no longer quit" Jingzhe Youth, Jia Hui

In the plastic greenhouse of fate, every cabbage that has been sprayed with too many pesticides once had a dream of becoming a pollution-free organic vegetable.

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